Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：商业观察)

• ·专访 Chainlink 联创 Sergey Nazarov：要做连接 TradFi 与 DeFi 的桥梁
• ·欧意易交易所网页版|okx欧意易官网入口，一站式数字货币交易平台
• ·数字货币交易所系统
• ·华南职业教育(06913)：岭南职业技术学院与广东集盛建设订立整体装修及安装协议
• ·住房公积金冲本金-住房公积金冲本金,什么流程
• ·海南属于什么地区-广东广西海南属于什么地区
• ·请问苏宁任性付逾期起诉么？我在苏宁任性付贷了20000元。
• ·achain币钱包地址
• ·特朗普媒体科技集团股票暴涨超四倍，谁是最大受益者？
• ·流通中有多少比特币
• ·个人所得税补缴页面减免性质怎么填
• ·10月31日前海开源公用事业股票净值增长0.95%，今年来累计上涨8.1%
• ·加密市场宏观研报：中美经贸回暖与「双降」共振，Web3生态或迎新周期
• ·戈尔（Gork Memecoins）因埃隆·马斯克更名事件暴涨7000%引发市场热议
• ·莱币今日价格
• ·公积金补缴迟迟不到账