Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：风向标)

• ·买房住房公积金贷款 的政策有哪些？不是很懂。
• ·meme币苹果下载地址 meme币最新版官方下载链接
• ·有人知道变更住房公积金贷款担保人需要什么条件吗？
• ·热币是什么 热币是什么东西
• ·脑钱包怎么生成 脑钱包生成器
• ·第四代半导体概念31日主力净流入4412.92万元，衢州发展、南大光电居前
• ·股票返佣金-股票返佣金犯法吗
• ·比特币巨鲸再度加码：持有价值3.93亿美元多头头寸，清算价逼近95,600美元
• ·比特币逼近历史高点：市场强劲复苏，以太坊因Pectra升级飙升
• ·会计的三大含义是什么？
• ·现金流量表中支付的税费包括哪些
• ·法币交易平台
• ·台风犹如什么 如同什么-台风犹如什么如同什么
• ·财务报表列报的基本要求有哪些？
• ·DeFi 灵活布局+代币收益连击，解读 Tranchess 的棋盘智慧
• ·德视佳(01846.HK)10月31日耗资26万港元回购5.9万股